Update: As you can see the blue connector definitely has some issues on the side with the black/white stripe wire. Damn these are quite small but hopefully hitting it with some Deoxit contact cleaner and a selection of toothbrush, q-tip and a piece of copper wire is enough to get it all cleaned out. If there is a better way to clean this side of the contacts I am all ears.
For tracing the battery power on black/white stripe wire, the probes on my multi meter aren't nearly small enough. Also are you back probing it with the connector plugged together, or just measuring with it unplugged on the connector above? Might be able to carefully stick a short wire in and measure off that.
Orange ground block was spotless. Cleaned it anyway.
Working through to the grounds under the tank so no verdict yet. It may take some time to confidently know its fixed with the problem being so intermittent. But at least seeing a potential problem spot is encouraging.
Also, I cannot for the life of me find the relays for the headlights and engine stop. Does the front cowl have to come off to access these? Service manual picture makes it look like they should be accessible without doing that.