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The future of motorcycling


Kbear

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It sure would be nice if the stupid govt would mandate a robust EV infrastructure to be put in place (not just charging stations, but electrical grid upgrades as well) before any mandates on EV production or bans on ICE's.  What's the old saying?  Don't put the cart before the horse.  

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Yeah, Big Automakers have been dragging their feet and hindering EV for decades. That's why we're so far behind Europe & China in deploying EV infrastructure. They're very tightly integrated into government operations since there's so much money from oil.

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Nothing is more taxed and regulated than oil, and few things are getting the breaks EVs are getting.  And the math behind "Why EVs are better" gets a little thin if you really deep dive on it in any direction.  If the business case reeeeaaally made sense we wouldn't need such a heavy thumb on the scales.

 

I contemplate getting a Tesla 3 as a second vehicle...but it only really makes sense because I'm in SoCal and gas vs electricity math is even more artificially distorted than anywhere else.  California (via processes behind closed doors that voters do not control) made themselves a fuel island, and also subsidizes EVs heavily with tax credits, HOV lane access, and low cost charging between midnight and six am.  People tend to overvalue fuel efficiency (hence the relative but not absolute lower elasticity of fuel prices) and its not "why" I would get a Tesla.  But it makes more sense here than elsewhere especially with HOV access.


None of this is really good policy anymore than the ethanol mandates have been.  I don't think anyone but the most hardened of corn state voters pretends ethanol makes sense anymore.  But policy tends to go one way and when challenged, governments only seem to double down rather than contemplate if they're right.  So a Tesla sort of makes sense to me for the long term (and as a stockholder) for artificial reasons I don't believe will be upended in the next ten years at least.

 

 

 

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I did the math for having EV in S.F. Bay Area. Even without adding cost of installing charger or time & cost of out-of-home charging, it comes out being equivalent to car with 30-mpg. Better off getting Prius with 55-mpg or Ninja 250 with 65-mpg. That's what I used for my commute to S.F. and fill up once per week. EV would cost me twice as much per week in operating costs. 

 

That's due to high cost of electricity in Bay Area, and most likely other dense metropolitan areas. All of studies of EV uses "average" cost of electricity, not sure how they determined that. But most of us don't live in middle of nowhere with cheap power.

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One of my co-workers has a Model 3. He sez if he plugs it in all night he gets 50 miles - his claim, not mine.  Tried to get 220 wired in to his garage, best bid he got for that was $2,500. So instead he drives 15 miles across town  in horrid traffic 1 or 2 times / week to sit for however long at a station.  What a PITA. Once this is forced down our collective throats by the car cos. , dingbats in Congress and the state of insanity I live in,  what are people that park on the street gong to do?  And just wait until some emergency crops up and they need to go somewhere urgently  and the car's battery is flat . . . Not a very appealing future.  Maybe I should look for an extension cord company to invest in . . . 

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Can't wait for good electric dirtbikes so we don't have to deal with noise mandates. It will take a few years after at least for them to figure out another reason to ban dirt tracks.

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So just had a look at battery life for LifePO4 batteries. Based on a perfect charging routine & 75% average discharge. You should get between 4-8K charge cycles, dependant on battery temperature. So if that holds true & your battery has 150mile range to 75% discharge state. Then driven that far every day for 10years the battery should be good for over 500K/miles. So battery longevity should not be a concern, as that is 50-66% more miles than most ICE vehicles cover.  
 

The real problem is the charging infrastructure required to replace the fleet.
If I meet another EV geek that says "my Tesla can get 80% in 20minutes on a fast charger" I'll enlighten them that I can get my ICE car from 0-100% in less than 5 minutes & it cost HALF what your Tesla does & goes twice as far on a full tank. When you next pull off to charge & find the few charge points occupied, how will that hour wait feel ? 😩

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I don't think this train is stopping. Between 2030 and 2040 most mfgs say they will be going electric. Could be more marketing than business plans, to be seen.

 

https://www.forbes.com/wheels/news/automaker-ev-plans/

 

Also read this, which is encouraging.

 

Battery swapping also will play a key role in accelerating e-motorcycle adoption, a technology that Honda and Yamaha have been far more active in developing. On March 1, 2021, the two companies pushed further into this space by announcing a partnership with Piaggio and KTM to develop international standards for battery swapping. Also in March, the Swappable Battery Consortium for Electric Motorcycles — consisting of Honda, Yamaha, Suzuki and Kawasaki — reportedly reached an agreement to standardize swappable batteries and replacement systems for e-motorcycles in Japan.

 

The focus for ebikes will be Asia Pacific for years to come, North America will be last to the party.

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5 hours ago, Mohawk said:

The real problem is the charging infrastructure required to replace the fleet.
If I meet another EV geek that says "my Tesla can get 80% in 20minutes on a fast charger" I'll enlighten them that I can get my ICE car from 0-100% in less than 5 minutes & it cost HALF what your Tesla does & goes twice as far on a full tank. When you next pull off to charge & find the few charge points occupied, how will that hour wait feel ? 😩

 

Since I don't own an EV, I have no idea what it costs to recharge at a public charging station, or if there are differences in pricing when it's a normal charger vs. a supercharger.

 

I think many EV owners just build charging time into their trips if they need to charge en route, especially during long trips.  Bring a book, play games on your phone, or walk to the nearest restaurant and get a meal while you wait for your car to charge.  Not as quick and convenient as gassing up your vehicle, but not the end of the world either.

 

One of the car review channels I watch regularly on YouTube is TheStraightPipes, which is run by a couple slightly goofy guys (Yuri and Jakub) from Ontario.  Usually when they have reviewed EV cars they've chosen a public charging station to test with the car, and sometimes there are compatibility issues.  When it works they say how long it took, how much life they got the battery up to, and how much it cost.  My impression is that yes, it takes some time, and that it isn't cheap.  Whether it's more or less than buying unleaded gas/petrol I have no idea, but I don't think we can say fueling EVs is a radical savings from buying regular or even premium unleaded.  Maybe it's cheaper to charge at home, but on the go be prepared to pay like you were hitting the gas station.

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5 hours ago, vfrcapn said:

 

Battery swapping also will play a key role in accelerating e-motorcycle adoption,

When I get my new whiz-bang fancy e-bike, I'll ride it a few times locally on a nice new full capacity battery that I paid lots of money for and figure out how far a charge will take me.  Then I'll take a road trip and swap it out for some abused POS battery and get stranded between towns cause it won't go nearly as far as my nice expensive new battery.  I'll be stuck with these abused POS batteries for the rest of my ownership.  🤬

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You may want to do some current research. What you're describing hasn't been true for many years. 

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EV's are not expensive to charge, much cheaper than liquid fuels. The link here says approx £16 for 280mile range https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1k76UKn1ZwqpTzoav7QbglgaiaZBkvhywOWqc88dWJHU/htmlview

 

So for the same range my diesel car costs more than twice that, based on UK fuel costs (which are extortionate). But the car cost just over half what a Tesla would. That's a lot of litres ! 
 

The problem is there is NOT enough electrical generating capacity in any country to allow conversion of the whole ICE fleet to electric. And currently most public charge points only support 4-10 vehicles, so of they are all full when you arrive you may have to wait an hour BEFORE you start charging. How do you plan that into your trip ? 
 

Battery swapping is an answer, much better than sh!t  cheap chargers especially in USA based electric networks where 110v is often less than the battery voltages, thus requiring step up transformers to increase voltage which reduces amps available to charge the battery at home. And reduces charging efficiency. 
 

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Mohawk nailed some of the questions in my mind about going all out for EVs... and the other thought is - this is supposed to be helping the climate change thing. 

But on a big picture scale, if it becomes the dominate way of transportation, are we just swapping one pollution source (I.C.) for another, the large electric generation plants? 

Just commiseration and curiosity..

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Good point Mello dude and Mohawk! In addition,  the environmental burden to explore and process the materials needed in huge.

There are already arguments that ev are not necessarily better for the environment if considering the  complete energy and emissions balance. These are my 2 cents.

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My neighbours new BMW hybrid car has developed a battery problem, it’s under warranty so he’s getting the battery replaced at no cost to him, just as well it’s £18,000 or $22,000 plus fitting cost

 

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22 hours ago, Mohawk said:

EV's are not expensive to charge, much cheaper than liquid fuels. The link here says approx £16 for 280mile range https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1k76UKn1ZwqpTzoav7QbglgaiaZBkvhywOWqc88dWJHU/htmlview

That's the sleight of hand - it's even more artificially "cheaper" in the UK.  Our fuel taxes here are extortionate, and in the UK and most of Europe they are simply criminal.  Remove that thumb from the scale, and any subsidies from electric vehicles and the math is different.

 

It's one thing to look at this as an individual making a capital investment decision.  In that case (and mine) an EV sort of makes sense.  As a matter of policy, it's crazy talk.  Reductio ad absurdam tells us what happens...let's say EVs are now the majority.  Several things happen when the subsidies become unaffordable and the OBTW... government is no longer reaping crazy money from oil sector taxes.  That last part is even worse for the UK, an oil producing state.

 

 

 

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28 minutes ago, ShipFixer said:

Several things happen when the subsidies become unaffordable and the OBTW... government is no longer reaping crazy money from oil sector taxes.

 

We've already seen one consequence of hybrids and EVs here in Ohio.  Two years ago the state legislature increased the annual registration fees by $100 for hybrids and $200 for EVs.  The increased fees offset the loss of gas tax revenue from people who buy less gas.  The gas tax helps pay for transportation infrastructure, so the thinking was since hybrid and EV owners don't buy as much (or any) gas they have to be taxed some other way.

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UK gov has changed annual vehicle tax rates 2 years ago for the same reason. Were low emission petrol cars were free, they are now £155pa ($205), only zero emission vehicles are free now. 
 

They just dropped the EV grant from £2500 to £1500 the other day. And hilariously reduced the minimum vehicle price from £35K to £32K, I'd love to know what universe they are living in. If you can afford a £35K car you don't need a grant. And if you look at the history of gov grants here, what cost £20K yesterday & then a £5K grant was introduced, then tomorrow it cost £25K 🤔 

 

Never mind buy fuel & enjoy the ride until ya can't no more. 
 

UK has sales of approx 47BIllion Litres of petrol/diesel per year. Or 258Million (UK) 40gallon drums. 
The chart 1.3 on page 3 here shows how much transport consumes Energy_Trends_September_2021.pdf#page2


Last time I checked (a few years ago) 93% of oil production was used for transport. And 97% of transport was liquid fuelled. The chart 1.3 showing everything above transport is basically gas & electrical consumption. To replace all that liquid fuelled transport would require a doubling of UK electrical generation capacity & we are struggling to keep the lights on now. 😩 Oh and we want to reduce emissions 😗

 

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Not EV related, but we pay a highway use tax when we title...not when we register. So when I buy a bike as a project, I get to pay for the highways it will never go on during my ownership. Thieves. If the government is involved, no logic is likely to be harmed. 

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Well, some thoughts.

 

I live in a rural area, apparently there are 3 charging station in the county all with a single plug. One is closed from 7pm till 7am, when electricity is cheapest. Who's idea was that?

 

Back when PG&E was responsible for 84 deaths in Calf. in the Paradise fire, they were still only voted the second worst Electric company in the US. The worst? Central Maine power, great. I expect to lose my power often and for long periods. I keep 1/2 cord of wood in the driveway and a generator in the garage.. Longest outage? 2 weeks, try that out.

 

We don't see many EV's up here, but I'm curious how they perform at -25F or -50F up north. My experience with my Cars suggests not very well.

 

Maine's electricity is 30% higher than the National average, the power portion, not the delivery is set to increase 88.6% on Jan 1 . That translates to one of the highest in the country.

 

I wonder how many self righteous Prius, Tesla, et al owner realize they are carrying around 600 to 1200 lbs of hazardous waste, yes Metal Hydride and Lithium battery's are categorized  as such. Not aware they can be recycled, so it will be a landfill nightmare in the coming years.

 

So in conclusion, I cannot for see paying twice the price for a vehicle that will be  less than functional during our winters, subject to Central Maine Powers price hikes, and that's even if we have power, and is an environmental disaster at the end of its life, and yes, some one is going to figure out how to make that a very expensive ending.

 

In an urban setting, with mild winters, short commutes and reasonable/reliable electricity, and someone figures out what to do with the batteries, I can see it. But I don't live in that magical place of Unicorns and free Beer.

 

 

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